23.02.2010

Eurasia sees American geopolitical low tide

By Analytical informational bureau PIK

Successful set-back keeps much more lives than successful attack

Yuri Tatarkin

US are losing its grounds in Eurasia. The era of American expansion, which began in the 80th years of XX century, pursued vigorously in the 90th after the collapse of the Soviet Union and received a further powerful impetus by the events of September 11, 2001, was replaced on the stabilization and pullback. It’s seen in Kazakhstan within the speed which Astana accepted rapprochement to Moscow. Recent attacks on oil giants position in the Republic – are also the part of the process. Ak Orda political party wouldn’t dare such audacity earlier.

2010 02 23 DuvThe most vivid indicator of American geopolitical pullback in Eurasia is Ukraine election held in February. Russian albeit with the difficulty but steadily gets back Kiev into its sphere of traditional political influence. When Ukraine Orange party won in 2005 year with the strong political and financial support from the West, then many respected experts started to talk about US and Euro Union are now both powerful players in CIS space as well as Russia.

Although, the one thing is to seize something and another one is to keep it. Washington couldn’t keep control at Kiev. Investment opportunities were insufficient. The Ukraine society itself didn’t show unity on the question of moving to Europe and NATO. Official Kiev’s efforts on establishing of aureole of freedom fighters by national Banderovites cooperated with Hitler during the Second World War haven’t had conceived effect. The establishing of independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church also had failed finally; don’t confuse Orthodox Church with Uniate Church).

Yulia Tymoshenko is desperate political fighter. If she cease from strife after she lost in the second round with minimum breakdown, though not without of much hesitation, then she had really nothing to do with it. Thereat, she is considered less pro-western politician than Victor Yushchenko relatively. Global play deprived her from opportunity to win.

Americans came actively and aggressively to Kazakhstan in 90th years. Tengiz oil deposit has become the prize for them, because it was actually given for granted in the celebration of independence. After that came the Day of September 11, 2001 and NATO military bases appeared in Central Asia region. Kazakhstan Army even established special battalion compatible with Armed Forces of North Atlantic Alliance and was ready to send it to Afghanistan under US guidance.

Time countdown began with the war in Iraq in 2003 year. Washington couldn’t organize legally valid war aggression against Saddam Hussein. Invasion began without United Nations sanction. Everybody saw that the only super-state in the world also has its opportunities ceiling. After that the threats came into Iran address, in the meantime Pentagon with its allies stuck in Afghanistan mountings and canons; so analytics estimated the beginning of aggression against Teheran as the step to abyss in any sense of the word — military, political, economical, ideological and image one.

Americans becomes disillusioned as partners. Washington treated to Mikhail Saakashvili by principle as “it’s your own fault” after he hasn’t succeeded his shady undertaking in South Ossetia. He was supported in words very much but practically it ended in the level with new portion of credits and continuation of arms procurement. After the reign of ruling regime the Orange political party status in Tbilisi becomes quite fragile; even despite the fact that Mikhail Saakashvili’s opponents in Georgia are used to disappear without a trace but it wasn’t the same in times of Eduard Shevardnadze ruling.

Eduard Shevardnadze personality is vivid example of usual US approach to work with abroad statesmen. Eduard Shevardnadze was put from Moscow in the aim of chaos overcoming which had been occured in Zviad Gamsakhurdia times. Shevardnadze was overbought by White House after that; he served American’s interests faithfully. Time past and Mikhail Saakashvili was casting to the place of Head of Georgia state, as more faithful person to Uncle Sam deed. The replacement of one to another wasn’t long to wait. May be, Americans are ready to replace Saakashvili already, but there are no any warranties that Tbilisi will stay at the US patronage. That’s why they aren’t in a hurry with replacement, trying to deal with the problems in devastated country firstly.

Russia has another point of view to the question. Let’s take for example the story with Gerhard Schroeder, Germany federal chancellor in 1998 – 2005 years. His relations with Kremlin leaders were built on mutual partnership. There ware no any changes even in 2004 year when Moscow was engaged with sharply increasing of state centralization. In results, Schroeder has good position in the Baltic Sea pipeline consortium.

Americans have more cynic attitude to political personalities which have smaller caliber than the Head of the state. Iraqi top generals were warranted with self safety and money in 2003 year; so almost all of them took the enemy side and practically disorganized the defense system in Baghdad region. As the result almost all of them died after the war in obscure circumstances.

Cold deck ace of American diplomacy in the form of lies and double standards politics is also failed. Kazakhstani opposition has disappointed long time ago in support of West. At some point they also saw the abyss between deeds and promises of Washington dignitaries is only increasing. It’s doubtless, there are pro-US persons in Kazakhstan and they’re ready to make efforts to change main vector of Astana politics from Moscow to Washington but they’re getting less.

Though, the number of those, who doesn’t see profit in pro-US orientation, is growing. Maximum we can await from the present is possibility to gain another Tengiz by American oil and gas companies, Kazakhstan as we know already lost billions of dollars with the first one. Infrastructure of American influence is growing stunted whether it’s oppositional politics or NGO’s and mass media.

American’s positions weakening have continuation as the Russia and China strengthening. China is even prevail, but Ak Orda political party has anticipations to it in genetic, historical, mental and cultural level. Millennial China has too many strange, odd and mysterious for Kazakhstani political elite; so Astana goes by beaten and clear path, i.e. to Moscow. We see the more complicated construction of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Customs union — is actually the beginning of the path of full-scale economic integration of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, where Ukraine may easily entered also.

US influence traditionally strongly in the places where the fifth or sixth American fleet can arrive; i.e. the warranties of oil contracts abiding aren’t international agreements but possibilities of military ministry – Pentagon. Although life shows us that even in accessible places for American’s ships, such as Persian Gulf, for instance, Iran holds more undependable and self-contained politics. What can be said about Central Asia region, where’s no oceanic ships way within the geographical reasons.

Kazakhstan has actually started attack on western oil companies since Moscow protection to Astana has shaped already. Informational disturbance, which was translated recently by Times Online newspaper is nothing more than the result of confusion among headquarters of Chevron, ExxonMobil, BG Group, Shell, Total and ENI. Not all of those transnational corporations are American or British, but all of them are getting weaker in conditions of US geopolitical low tide.

The abovementioned is proved by other oblique features. For instance, recently in Kazakhstan, or to be more precise, for the last four years Russian politologists were substantially activated, particularly Alexey Vlasov. His complimentary comments on actions of Kazakhstani powers are perceived loyal, and nowadays he is the most required commentator, and after a few years he can be considered as quite a leading specialist on Kazakhstan. Obviously, it is not appealing to many. But he wasn’t yet openly criticized in Russia for his passion to Kazakhstan, and nobody never in Kazakhstan, for that he easily and simply commenting what’s happening within its borders. But it will catch up with him in the end… On pages of Respublika newspaper, which was not once used services of Vlasov as an expert analyst, the famous pro-oppositional journalist and zealot of Western democracy Sergey Duvanov in a manner peculiar for him has attacked Vlasov particularly as on Russian representative.

Allegedly that man has been engaged and helping from his (obviously) Russian side to support personal power regime, which is acting in Kazakhstan. However, were there only hopes on sacred idea of democracy without borders that led a pen of Sergey Duvanov? For people involved it looks like one Russian man, to whom the world is appearing as a battle arena between correct Americans and the rest represented by wrong totalitarians and authoritarians by a will of you know who is fighting the other Russian person? Who is not even close to superpower follower, but liberal? But Russian liberal is now too the enemy to the Big Brother, and the question lies on a different surface; only the instruments and loud effect are staying traditional, “democratical”. However, in this case they appearing to be quasi-democratic.

It is obvious that Washington will not give away Eurasia without fight. It should be prepared to counterattacks, counterstrikes, various intrigues. But objectively the process of American geopolitical retreat has already started. The only question is that would it be implemented by organized columns with long delays on earlier reached borders, or it will be unorganized runaway? In ideological terms their guard dogs would bark even more violently nevertheless. So then it will add some work to Sergey Duvanov and people as him apparently.

11 comments

  1. Anonymous

    Глубоко капнули... Но начетничество есть. Амерниканцы на круг все равно порядочнее в плане исполнеения закона чем другие нации. Не говоря уш про казахогв и русских.

  2. Anonymous

    Истину глаголишь, человече

  3. Anonymous

    Гуд бай Америка? А не рановато ли?

  4. Anonymous

    Точное определение. И правду, цепной пес демократии... По фамилии Дуванов.

  5. Anonymous

    Не все так однозначно. как тут стараются нас убедить. Штаты имеет великие возможности и что самое немаловажное. великие умы. Этот монстр не по зубам Евразии.

  6. Anonymous

    all respect to bureau PIK, but his lost this fight iggy was better!!!!!

  7. Слай

    дуванов чорт. Чертила.

  8. Anonymous

    Хорошо человек устроился. Баблос америкосы подкидывают через Сорос. Печатается в больших оппозиционных газетах. Даже диссидентом может считаться из за отсидки в тюрьме чеснокогвым...

  9. Ишаев

    Аллах акбар — режь свиней: геноцид-законы инвалют-инязычных, теракты еврей Нацбанка, уйгур правительства, богатства, сбережения, финансы, бюджеты, налоги, зачеты, вычеты, цены, тарифы, тендеры, аукционы, продажи, пенсии, зарплаты, дивиденды, доходы ВНЕ сальдо производства-потребления, горагроустава, капитала, отрасли, покупат-бухклиринг-кластера, IPправоакцепта, фискалсерверов, аудита, страхования ущерба, постан-решении, эмитентов, калькуляции нацрентабельности, терразвития, младоконкурентоспособности. Жузсовет Р.Б. Ишаев 3975813, 3974855, +77016711095, znanie_sila_kz@mail.ru

  10. Anonymous

    Человек мира... Ептыть.

  11. Ишаев

    Cудопроизводство Бога. Приговор кризису, безденежью, безработице, террористическому НДС, ценообразованию, доходополучению без прибавочного продукта, официальному обменному курсу обескровливания страны(30крат-девальвации), дивидендам, прибылям, грантам, бюджетам, пенсиям, зарплатам вне казначейских счетов эмитентов нацрентабельности, геноциду инвалют-инязычных (докоборот, учет, аудит, долги, иски, нотариат, юстиция, отчетность статистика, образование, информация, культура — МОЗГОСВИНЕЙ). Жузсовет Р.Б. Ишаев тел 3975813, +77016711095, znanie-sila_kz@mail.ru, казахская Роза тел 3760383,+77015707842, институт Г Керей тел 3760801, 2964076.